24 Feb 2012 | Israel is claiming that Iran is thisclose to developing a missile that can hit American soil. But missile and intelligence experts say Tehran has a long, technically complex road to travel before it can threaten Manhattan.
From getting all the rocket thrusters to work properly to developing heat shields that can withstand the stresses of rapid atmospheric reentry, Iran is probably many years away from getting an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The American spy apparatus, which once hyped the Iranian missile threat, has quietly stopping saying when Iran can hit the east coast. And the irony is that it’s taking Iran so long precisely because its missile efforts really are sophisticated.
“The bottom line,” says Paul Pillar, a veteran CIA Mideast analyst, “is that the intelligence community does not believe [the Iranians] are anywhere close to having an ICBM.”
That, however, isn’t the message out of
JerusalemIsrael. Israeli Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz told CNBC on Wednesday Iran was “two to three years” away from slamming a missile into New York, Boston or Washington. Its strategic-affairs minister, Moshe “Bogie” Yaalon, issued that same warning earlier this month, but declined to say when Iran’s mega-missile would be ready.Chances are, the Israelis are hyping the Iranian missile threat so their American friends will consider the Iranian threat more acute. They’re not happy with Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for saying on Sunday that an Israeli attack on Iran was “not prudent.” But few missile or intelligence experts believe the new claim of an imminent Iranian ICBM is going to change Dempsey’s mind, or anyone else’s, because it’s far-fetched.
It’s true that Tehran has a robust missile program. Its stockpiles of Shahab-3 ballistic missiles, which top out at 800 miles, strike fear into the hearts of Arab Gulf states. Israel has real reason to fear the development of its Sejjil medium-range ballistic missile, a more sophisticated weapon, that could maybe reach Israel in a few years. And unlike rogue-state missile flameouts like North Korea, Iran is able to launch satellites into space, which is a key ICBM step (since any intercontinental missile is going to have to fly through space in order to attack a foe so far away).
But none of that adds up to Iran getting a missile that can travel the 6,000 miles necessary for striking America any time soon …
Read More: Wired
via Boing Boing:
At Hacker News, a user named “Sara70” posts:
I’m writing this to report the serious troubles we have regarding accessing Internet in Iran at the moment. Since Thursday Iranian government has shutted down the https protocol which has caused almost all google…
(via androphilia)
He told NBC he believed Israel had not yet decided how to deal with the issue, amid reports that Israel may strike Iran as early as spring.
Mr Obama said the aim was to resolve the crisis diplomatically, but added that no option was off the table.
The US and Israel suspect that Iran is building a nuclear bomb. Iran says its programmes are for peaceful purposes.
Last November, the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, said it had information suggesting Iran had carried out tests “relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device”.
Since then, the US and the EU have imposed a series of sanctions against Iran, including measures targeting the country’s lucrative oil industry.
‘Deep alarm’
“I’ve been very clear - we’re going to do everything we can to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and creating a nuclear arms race in a volatile region,” Mr Obama told NBC in a live interview on Sunday.
He said Washington was working “in lockstep” with Israel, which was right to be very concerned about Iran’s controversial activities.
Asked if he believed the Jewish state could launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran, Mr Obama said: “I don’t think Israel has made a decision on what they need to do.”
He declined to answer directly a question whether Washington would be consulted first, saying only that the US and Israel “have closer military and intelligence consultation… than we’ve ever had”.
Mr Obama also said there was no evidence that the Iranians had “intentions or capabilities” to strike US targets in retaliation.
The US leader was eager to play down tensions between the US and Israel over suggestions that Israel is preparing a military strike against Iran, the BBC’s Jane Little in Washington reports.
But she says that behind the scenes Washington is deeply alarmed by reports that Israel may strike Iran as early as April - in a move that would drive up tensions in the Middle East as well as oil prices, which would threaten the global economy and Mr Obama’s re-election chances.
The International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday that global crude prices could rise as much as 30 percent if Iran halts oil exports as a result of U.S. and European Union sanctions.
If Iran halts exports to countries without offsets from other sources it would likely trigger an “initial” oil price jump of 20 to 30 percent, or about $20 to $30 a barrel, the IMF said in its first public comment on a possible Iranian oil supply disruption.
The IMF highlighted the risks of rising tensions over Iran sanctions in a note on Wednesday sent to deputies from G20 countries who met in Mexico City last week.
The price impact caused by a cut in Iranian exports could be exacerbated by below average oil stocks in many countries, the result of tight oil market conditions through much of last year, the IMF said.
The fund’s comments add pressure to the Obama administration as it struggles to find a way to get countries to reduce shipments of Iranian oil without pushing prices higher ahead of the November U.S. presidential election.
President Barack Obama is tightening sanctions on Iran in a move aimed to deprive its nuclear program of funds and technology. Western governments believe Iran is trying to build nuclear arms, a charge Tehran denies. The EU has slapped a ban on Iranian oil to take effect in six months …
Financial sanctions against Tehran may be “tantamount to an oil embargo” and would imply supply declines of about 1.5 million barrels per day from the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, the IMF said …
The IMF’s concerns about a large Iran-related oil supply shock or an actual disruption has risen in recent weeks as powers in the West increase pressure on Tehran. Its view is based on data that shows limited inventory and spare capacity, and projections that oil demand will not slow despite falling growth in advanced and emerging economies.
Sirin is a mythological creature of Russian legends, with the head and chest of a beautiful woman and the body of a bird (usually an owl). According to myth, the Sirins lived “in Indian lands” near Eden or around the Euphrates River.
These half-women half-birds are directly based on the Greek myths and later folklore about sirens.They were usually portrayed wearing a crown or with a nimbus. Sirins sang beautiful songs to the saints, foretelling future joys. For mortals, however, the birds were dangerous. Men who heard them would forget everything on earth, follow them, and ultimately die. People would attempt to save themselves from Sirins by shooting cannons, ringing bells and making other loud noises to scare the bird off. Later (17-18th century), the image of Sirins changed and they started to symbolize world harmony (as they live near paradise). People in those times believed only really happy people could hear a Sirin, while only very few could see one because she is as fast and difficult to catch as human happiness. She symbolizes eternal joy and heavenly happiness .
The legend of Sirin might have been introduced to Kievan Rus by Persian merchants in the 8th-9th century. In the cities of Chersonesos and Kiev they are often found on pottery, golden pendants, even on the borders of Gospel books of tenth-twelfth centuries. Pomors often depicted Sirins on the illustrations in the Book of Genesis as birds sitting in paradise trees.
Sometimes Sirins are seen as a metaphor for God’s word going into the soul of a man. Sometimes they are seen as a metaphor of heretics tempting the weak. Sometimes Sirins were considered equivalent to the Polish Wila. In Russian folklore, Sirin was mixed with the revered religious writer Saint Ephrem the Syrian. Thus, peasant lyrists such as Nikolay Klyuev often used Sirins as a synonym for poet.
I received the following mail from Quartz Lime, and being not very competent at using the tumblr, can’t find a way of directly responding to his/her extremely kind message. Whoever s/he is, I hope s/he will see this (I added some comments in bold):
Iranian Painting
Regarding the Islamic painting you posted (the one with the human-faced horse… thing… flying over the lion), all I could find was this: http://www.payvand.com/news/09/may/1181.html (this is an extremely useful site and not only for the info on glass painting but all kinds of cultural stuff Iranian) and this: http://www.dayartgallery.com/En/News.aspx?new_id=59 (this link is broken, trying to reach it dayartgallery through google doesn’t help either). That first article has some detail on a book about Iranian glass paintings, including how to order it, although it doesn’t mention whether an english version is available or not. There’s also this: http://www.persianpaintings.com/classpai.html (contains some lovely persian paintings though infuriatingly with no info on them) Which has a tiny bit of detail on Persian glass painting. Apologies for not being able to be of more help. (Also, I apologise if I submitted this wrong or somehow destroyed the formatting, I am bad at tumblr.)
winged man with a divine Assyrian or Urartian horned crown; often interpreted as a representation of Ahuramazda but its the farr of Darius the Great who built the monument which is most important recorded relief of Iranian history; historical account of Darius’ victories;
Heracles rock relief at Behistun According to its Greek inscription, the rock relief representing Heracles at Behistun was carved in 148 BCE , being dedicated to a local Seleucid governor. After the collapse of the first Persian Empire following the Macedonian invasion, following the death of Alexander the Great, the Greek dynasty of the Seleucids (from Seleukos, former general of Alexander) were the main rulers of the western part of the Iranian plate. The Seleucids were dominating the cities and the main commercial roads, but failed to impose their power in the rural lands. However, their artistic influence began to penetrate the Iranian plate and will remain for centuries, through the Parthian then the sasanian dynasties. The presence of a statue showing Heracles there testify of such artistic influence, as for the often seen Greek inscriptions or representations of Nike in the later carved rock relieves all over the country. A religious syncretism occurred in Iran soon after the beginning of the Seleucid dynasty, seen Heracles assimilated with the old Iranian divinity of power Verethragna. In this relief, Heracles is shown in a languorous attitude, laying naked on the skin of a lion (probably the Nemean lion he killed in his 12 labours) , holding a bowl, under the shadow of an Olive tree. His traditional wood bludgeon and elbow lay near him. If the topic is typically Greek, either The fashion and carving technique reveal the relief was carved by some Iranian artist, unfamiliar with the greek iconography. The main reason was probably because it was not a royal relief but one of a local person. Taken in Behistun, Province of Kermanshah, Iran, may 2009
Greeks battling the Persians at the Battle of Issue (333 BC), Perdiccas is mounted at right
(Incidentally, this site contains the largest selection of images from the Istanbul Archeological Museum, that I have been able to discover so far).
“The ancient city of Balkh, the oldest in today’s Afghanistan, is in Indian archeology associated with the Vedic name Bhakri, which later became Bactra for the Greeks, giving its name to Bactria. It was mostly known as the centre and capital of Bactria or Takharistan. Balkh is now for the most part a mass of ruins It is considered to be the first city to which the Indo-Iranian tribes moved from the North of Amu Darya, approximately between 2000 BC - 1400 AD.
From the Memoirs of Xuanzang, we learn that, at the time of his visit in the 7th cent AD, there were in the city, or its vicinity, about a hundred Buddhist convents, with 3,000 devotees, and that there was a large number of stupas, and other religious monuments. In 1220 Genghis Khan sacked Balkh, butchered its inhabitants and levelled all buildings capable of defense — a treatment to which it was again subjected in 1370 AD by Timur. Notwithstanding, Marco Polo (end 13th cent) could still describe it as “a noble and great city.” Ibn Battuta (1336) found it in ruins. It has never recovered.”
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In the Woods at Giverny, Blanche Hoschedé at Her Easel with Suzanne Hoschedé Reading, 1887, Claude Monet.
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Félix Edouard Vallotton, Femme assise dans un fauteuil
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GPOY I’M GLAD MONDAY IS ALMOST OVER
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Julia Gukova. Illustration from The Legendary Unicorn, 2004
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Wingate Paine
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6in:
Ushio Amagatsu
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Eleanor Fortescue Brickdale, The Uninvited Guest